The first round is behind us. Lula, from PT, and Flávio Bolsonaro, from PL, were the two candidates with the most votes and now face each other in the runoff on October 25, 2026. And it was closer than ever: the smallest gap in a presidential first round since Brazil went back to choosing its president by direct vote. With all the ballots counted, Flávio Bolsonaro had 47.03% of the valid votes and Lula, the sitting president, 45.16%. A distance of only 1.87 points between the two, according to the TSE. One thing worth explaining: valid votes are the votes cast for a candidate, not counting blank and spoiled ballots.

Before getting to the proposals, I need to make two criticisms, because they say a lot about where the country stands.

The first one is for the candidates: both of them chose not to debate their proposals publicly. They never stood face to face in a single debate during the first round, each one talking only to his own crowd. And even so they were the two candidates with the most votes in Brazil. In any job interview you have to explain yourself and answer hard questions; for the most important job in the country, both skipped that step, and Brazil let it happen.

The second criticism is for us, the voters, and it starts with me. Most Brazilians probably never opened the official plans these parties filed with the Electoral Court. I confess: I did not read them before the first round. I was running around with events, the company, sales and sorting out a lot of personal things. And I knew I would not be in my voting district on election day and would not vote, so I ended up letting it go. For the runoff I decided to set time aside and read both from cover to cover. I strongly recommend you do the same: they are public documents, and at the end of this article I leave both for download, here on the blog and straight from the TSE website. The PT plan has 84 pages. The PL plan has 76.

This article is my organization of that reading, theme by theme, in my own interpretation. It takes no side: it exists only to make it easier to understand what each one promises. And I do not need to give my opinion here. Those who know me already know how I think about this.

One heads-up: this article will stay open for anyone to read until the end of the runoff. After that, I close it, and it goes back to readers of the blog only. Two rules before we start:

  • This is only what the plans actually say, with the page number in parentheses when a figure matters. A government plan is a list of promises: the numbers each party uses to praise itself or attack the other side come from the parties themselves.
  • This article does not say who is right. When a plan does not touch a subject, I write "does not mention it". You read, compare and draw your own conclusion.

On one side, PT with Lula, in a coalition with PSB, PV, PCdoB, PDT, PSOL and Rede. The document is called "Guidelines for the Program of Transformation of Brazil" and the central idea is to continue what the current government does, and expand it. On the other side, PL with Flávio Bolsonaro. The plan is called "For Brazil to overcome its backwardness" and the central idea is to change course: smaller government, less spending and a harder line on crime.

For each theme I add a label: very different (they go opposite ways), same goal, different path (they want the same thing through different means) or similar.

Money and the economy

Government spending. How much can the government spend? Very different.

  • PT: keep the current rule that caps how much spending can grow each year. Says the accounts end 2026 close to balance, with a deficit near 0.4% of GDP (p. 11).
  • PL: create new, stricter rules so the government spends less than it collects and the debt falls. Says the debt grew about 13 points of GDP in four years (p. 71).

Taxes. How much tax is hidden in prices? Very different.

  • PT: continue the reform that merges 5 taxes into 2, with a tax-free basic food basket and partial cashback for the poorest. Recalls that people earning up to R$ 5,000 no longer pay income tax (p. 11 and 19).
  • PL: revise that reform to lower the consumption tax. The plan calculates it would sit around 30%, against an average of 19% in rich countries, "one of the highest in the world" (p. 30).

Interest rates. How to bring rates down? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: says high rates hold the country back and promises conditions for a sustained fall, with inflation under control (p. 49).
  • PL: "lower rates are not decreed: they are earned with the accounts in order". Rates only fall when the government stops piling up debt (p. 32).

Electricity bill. How to make energy cheaper? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: keep the bill free for low-income families using up to 80 kWh a month, more than 60 million people, and open a debate on cheaper energy for everyone (p. 65).
  • PL: simplify the bill, cut the charges buried inside it and lower energy taxes, keeping the social discount (p. 31).

Household debt. How to help people in debt? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: cites the Desenrola renegotiation rounds as an achievement and promises to monitor household debt and improve credit rules (p. 49).
  • PL: ban welfare money from going into online betting and teach personal finance through Caixa (p. 33).

State-owned companies. What about Petrobras and the others? Very different.

  • PT: a bigger Petrobras: more oil, more refining and a return to selling fuel directly at the pumps (p. 67).
  • PL: restart privatizations case by case, with state company bosses picked for proven competence, not political connections (p. 70).

Work

Workdays. How many days a week? Very different.

  • PT: end the 6x1 schedule and cut the week to 40 hours with no pay cut (p. 75).
  • PL: "negotiated over legislated": employer and employee agree on the rules between themselves, and the agreement prevails over the general law (p. 44).

Minimum wage. What happens to it? Very different.

  • PT: keep raising it above inflation every year (p. 73).
  • PL: does not mention it directly. The focus is making formal hiring cheaper "without removing rights" (p. 43).

First job. How to help job seekers? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: more training and a public job platform with artificial intelligence, inside the SINE network (p. 74).
  • PL: a cheaper contract for companies hiring young people aged 18 to 24 and people over 50 unemployed for at least a year (p. 43).

App work. What about Uber, iFood and the like? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: build a protection system with labor rights and retirement for platform workers (p. 74).
  • PL: keep the opportunities apps create and protect these workers "without union bosses leading the process" (p. 45).

Unions. What is their role? Very different.

  • PT: strengthen unions and collective bargaining (p. 76).
  • PL: the plan speaks of a "Union Republic" and says union bosses' interests override the workers' (p. 44).

Security

Organized crime. How to fight PCC, CV and the militias? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: create a Ministry of Public Security, choke the gangs' money and send R$ 10 billion to states and cities (p. 27 and 30).
  • PL: declare the gangs narco-terrorist organizations, double federal security spending and put elite Armed Forces troops on the borders, with permanent occupation of ports and airports (p. 13 to 15).

Minors. Does a teenager who commits a crime go to prison? Very different.

  • PT: no change to the age. Bets on prevention and opportunities for the young (p. 26).
  • PL: lower the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16, and punish from age 14 for serious crimes such as rape, trafficking, torture and murder (p. 13).

Prisons. What changes behind bars? Very different.

  • PT: deliver the Pena Justa plan targets and isolate gang leaders in federal prisons (p. 28).
  • PL: build 5 maximum security prisons on the El Salvador model, add half a million new places in 4 years and end progressive release for heinous crimes (p. 14 to 16).

Guns. What about firearms? Very different.

  • PT: keep gun and ammunition control and improve tracing (p. 28).
  • PL: does not address guns for citizens. The plan's mentions of weapons are about stopping criminals' rifles at the borders (p. 13 and 14).

Cameras. Where will the cameras be? Very different.

  • PT: more body cameras on police officers, with national rules for storing the footage (p. 30).
  • PL: the "Brazilian Wall": more than 1 million new facial recognition cameras on streets and at ports and airports (p. 15).

Violence against women. How to protect them? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: finish the 30 Brazilian Woman's Houses, open 15 Reference Centers and equip states to monitor aggressors (p. 21).
  • PL: ankle monitors for the aggressors of the more than 500,000 women under protective orders, full sentences for killing or assaulting women, and chemical castration for convicted rapists (p. 14).

School and health

Learning to read. How to teach children to read? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: target of 80% of children reading at the right age. Today it is 66% (p. 31).
  • PL: prioritize phonics, which teaches by linking each sound to a letter (p. 35).

Type of school. What should school look like? Very different.

  • PT: top priority for full-time school and good internet in every school (p. 31).
  • PL: more civic-military schools, education "free of indoctrination" and a voucher to study in another school when the public network has no place (p. 35 and 36).

Helping students. How to keep teenagers from dropping out? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: continue and strengthen Pé-de-Meia, the high school savings program that has already reached 7.3 million students (p. 32).
  • PL: the Acolher program: students with good grades get paid to tutor their classmates (p. 35).

University. How to get to higher education? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: 111 more federal institutes and a new wave of public universities in the countryside (p. 33).
  • PL: a student loan you only start paying once employed, with installments sized to your salary (p. 37).

Health. How to shrink the queues? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: a single digital queue ordered by clinical risk, surgery task forces and a 100% free Farmácia Popular that now includes lab tests (p. 36 to 38).
  • PL: pay SUS hospitals enough to cover real costs, use private clinics' idle hours and deliver medicine to people's homes (p. 37 and 38).

Medical records. What about your tests and appointments? Similar.

  • PT: a single citizen record: your tests and visits valid at any clinic (p. 35).
  • PL: a single record tied to your CPF, valid in SUS and in private care (p. 25).

Family and social support

Bolsa Família. Do the social programs continue? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: yes. Keep, improve and expand social protection, with Bolsa Família at the center (p. 18 and 19).
  • PL: yes, with a way out: priority in jobs and courses for beneficiaries, and a guaranteed return to the benefit if the job does not work out (p. 42).

A home of your own. How to help people buy a house? Similar.

  • PT: keep and expand Minha Casa Minha Vida for all income levels, aiming at 3 million homes contracted by the end of 2026 (p. 45).
  • PL: bring back Casa Verde e Amarela, aiming at 2.5 million homes, with the deed preferably in the woman's name (p. 47).

Daycare and care. Who looks after the children and the elderly? Similar.

  • PT: a National Care Policy, with care spaces for children aged 3 to 12 and home care for the elderly (p. 22 and 26).
  • PL: daycare guaranteed for every child, with a private daycare voucher while there is no public place, and a national care network for the elderly (p. 21).

Retirees. What changes at INSS? Similar.

  • PT: keep shrinking the queue and finish modernizing the service (p. 77).
  • PL: "INSS without queues", managed by waiting time, plus a new anti-fraud package on pension deductions (p. 26 and 72).

Nature and the countryside

Deforestation. What is the goal for the forest? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: net zero deforestation by 2030: whatever is cut must be compensated with forest coming back (p. 70).
  • PL: zero illegal deforestation by 2029, without creating new obligations for those producing within the law (p. 58).

Permits. How long to approve a project? Very different.

  • PT: enforce with satellites and artificial intelligence and trace product origins (p. 72).
  • PL: permits with a deadline: if the agency does not answer in time, the permit is granted (p. 49 and 50).

Energy. Where does the energy come from? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: more solar, wind and biofuels, in a power grid that is already 89% renewable (p. 64 and 68).
  • PL: allow fracking, expand natural gas and turn the country into a global data center hub (p. 52 and 53).

Farming. How to help those who plant? Very different.

  • PT: continue land reform and expand family farming credit (p. 59 and 60).
  • PL: grant land titles to small producers and guarantee property rights "with no room for relativization" (p. 54).

Indigenous lands. What about indigenous and quilombola lands? Very different.

  • PT: keep demarcating and removing invaders, and speed up quilombola titling (p. 20).
  • PL: give indigenous and quilombola peoples autonomy to decide on productive activities on their own lands (p. 50).

Environmental agencies. Who watches over nature? Very different.

  • PT: billion-dollar funds for climate and forest: the Amazon Fund, the Climate Fund and Tropical Forests Forever (p. 70 and 71).
  • PL: eliminate the overlaps between Ibama, Funai and ICMBio, and require NGOs that receive international money and sue the federal government to disclose their funders (p. 59).

Government, courts and the world

Size of government. Bigger or smaller? Very different.

  • PT: modernize the State and value public servants, with permanent negotiation (p. 16).
  • PL: cut at least 10 ministries and attack salary perks above the legal ceiling (p. 69).

Social media. Should the government act against fake news online? Very different.

  • PT: yes. Move forward with regulation against disinformation and hate campaigns (p. 16).
  • PL: no. End any state structure that works as a "Ministry of Truth", which the plan calls censorship (p. 66).

Supreme Court. What changes at the STF? Very different.

  • PT: permanent dialogue with the courts, respecting the autonomy of the branches. The plan proposes no STF reform (p. 16).
  • PL: limit single-justice rulings, favoring the full bench, and end special standing for lawmakers, who would be tried in lower courts (p. 65).

Reelection. Can a president run again? Very different.

  • PT: does not mention it. Says only that political and electoral reform cannot wait (p. 15).
  • PL: end presidential reelection, citing a proposal already filed in the Senate (p. 66).

Earmarked budget. The money lawmakers direct? Similar.

  • PT: debate it with society. In 2026 earmarks totaled R$ 50 billion, about a fifth of the discretionary budget (p. 15).
  • PL: more transparency, control and traceability over that money (p. 69).

The world. Who does Brazil get closer to? Very different.

  • PT: Mercosur and South America first, deeper ties with Africa and BRICS, and reform of the UN Security Council (p. 80 and 81).
  • PL: rebuild ties with the United States, Israel and Argentina, resume OECD accession and open up trade (p. 62 and 63).

Technology. What about artificial intelligence? Same goal, different path.

  • PT: sovereign AI speaking Portuguese and supercomputers run by national institutions (p. 54 and 55).
  • PL: bring AI to small businesses, with laws "aimed at the freedom to create and innovate" (p. 56).

What caught my eye in each plan

Things almost nobody is talking about, and they are written right there:

In the PT plan:

  • A new PAC of R$ 1.3 trillion by the end of 2026 (p. 11).
  • Gás do Povo: free cooking gas for more than 15 million families, about 50 million people (p. 66).
  • 1 million Minha Casa Minha Vida homes paid off for Bolsa Família and BPC beneficiaries (p. 45).
  • The Women's World Cup in Brazil next term, in 8 capitals, the first in South America (p. 43).
  • More ethanol in gasoline (27% to 32%) and more biodiesel in diesel (10% to 15%) (p. 68).
  • The time to issue a protective order for women fell from 16 days to 3, and the plan promises to keep the pact (p. 21).

In the PL plan:

  • The maximum security prison complex gets a name: TREVA, "to take fear away from citizens and put fear into criminals" (p. 14).
  • Phone theft with the initial sentence quadrupled, no benefits, including for resellers (p. 16).
  • ClarIA: an AI assistant for women that files police reports and requests protective orders through chat (p. 17 to 19).
  • Ganha, Ganha: paying bills on time and finishing courses earn points, which become lower interest and cashback (p. 19 and 46).
  • R$ 900 billion in infrastructure over 4 years, including the Northeast Train: 1,400 km of track linking 7 state capitals (p. 51 and 60).
  • A target of 4% growth a year over the next decade, double the average of the last two (p. 49).

I thought it was important to explain

  • Public debt: the money the government borrowed and still has to pay back, with interest.
  • Interest: the "rent" of money. When it is high, buying in installments and borrowing get more expensive.
  • Consumption tax: the tax already hidden in the price of what you buy, from bread to a phone.
  • 6x1 schedule: working 6 days in a row with only 1 day off.
  • Age of criminal responsibility: the age from which a person is tried and jailed as an adult. Today it is 18.
  • Ministry: a part of the government in charge of one area, such as Health or Education.
  • Fake news: false stories created to deceive, spread mostly on social media.
  • Mercosur: a trade bloc formed by Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia. It is not all of South America: Chile, Colombia, Peru and other neighbors are not members.
  • STF: Brazil's Supreme Court, the highest in the country, with 11 justices.
  • Single-justice ruling: when one STF justice decides alone, without the other ten.
  • Reelection: when a sitting president can run for 4 more years.
  • BRICS: a group of countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, among others.
  • OECD: a group of mostly rich countries that follow similar economic and governance rules.
  • Fracking: a way of extracting gas from underground rock by cracking it with pressurized water and sand.
  • Net zero deforestation: trees may still be cut, but the same area is restored, and the balance is zero.

To wrap up

After this reading, here is what stays with me: the two plans share many very similar goals. In some cases even the way of executing is similar; in others, it is completely different. So read the plans and interpret them for yourself.

In September of last year I wrote what I think about fighting over politics the way people fight over soccer teams. I have not changed my mind. Both documents are out there, public, page numbers and all. Read them, compare them with your own life and decide your vote on October 25. And after the election, stay friends with people.

Download and read the original documents

That is the biggest recommendation in this article. My reading organizes it; the official document is the source.

I read all 84 pages of one and all 76 of the other, and every figure quoted here was checked against the documents. Now the only thing missing is you reading them.